"Pelosi's go to to Taiwan" is most in all likelihood a "Thucydides lure" cautiously designed through america, and it's miles a diplomatic layout of the US' "twin-track approach" (song 1) towards China. (Associated Press)
Will US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi come to Taiwan? It has grow to be the point of interest of heated discussions in the worldwide network these days. If Pelosi's visit to Taiwan comes actual, it will not handiest exchange the destiny pattern of the trilateral dating among the USA, China and Taiwan, however additionally affect the security state of affairs in Taiwan.
"Pelosi's visit to Taiwan" is a "Thucydides lure"
From the perspective of strategic design, "Pelosi's visit to Taiwan" may be very possibly to be a "Thucydides entice" cautiously designed by using the USA, and it's miles a diplomatic layout of the "dual-song method" (music 1) followed by way of the United States toward China. "Thucydides Trap" is a right term used to explain an emerging electricity and an current power in a security predicament of "trying to update/now not being replaced" due to the deepening of strategic mutual suspicion and the escalating fingers race , finally leading to battle.
As for the so-known as "twin-tune approach", america claims to China on the floor that america adheres to the "One China" coverage, does not combat a Cold War with China, america will no longer trade the ruling popularity of the Chinese Communist Party, and that america-China relationship is "aggressive and cooperative"...And many others. Wait, in truth, that is a sort of "comfort approach", a type of smokescreen; but in non-public, the United States has not handiest regularly perfected the "Indo-Pacific strategic local chain" to contain China under an umbrella, it isn't always an "island chain", however a community of The "local chain" even includes the brewing of "Indo-Pacific NATO" to perform a "seamless containment" and "maximum pressure" on China, and has also surpassed a few high-degree payments inside the field of science and era, mainly inside the deliver of strategic assets In terms of chain, tightly squeeze China's neck.
Don't watch the a laugh and watch the doorway: What do you believe you studied of the "Pelosi Trap"?
In international politics, while searching at a diplomatic occasion, you may take it as follows: antecedents→timing→events→consequences happened.
Antecedent: The United States can now not stand the CCP
Recently, the CCP has carried out at the least 3 things that have made the US so irritated!
First, on the problem of the Russian-Ukrainian warfare, China has been secretly offsetting US sanctions against Russia.
Second, disagreement with US warships in the South China Sea, and even provocation of "dangerous expulsion", and dangerously coming near Canadian and Australian navy aircraft.
Third, the CCP broadcasts that the Taiwan Strait isn't always an worldwide waters, and that China has jurisdiction over the Taiwan Strait, brazenly opposing america policy of "loose and open Indo-Pacific".
The CCP is going to hold the "Beidaihe Conference" and the 20 th National Congress, and the inner state of affairs is aggravating and cannot address external affairs. (Associated Press)
Time and area: The CCP’s surroundings is not appropriate
In the judgment of the time and space environment (timing), the US believes that the CCP has 3 thorny issues, which makes america experience that it may take motion at this second:
First, Xi Jinping's dynamic reset policy has prompted giant social dissatisfaction.
Second, the CCP's economic downturn and the deterioration of the overall financial environment, even Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council can not shop it.
Third, the CCP is going to preserve the "Beidaihe Conference" and the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and the internal situation is disturbing and can not cope with outside affairs.
Event: Pelosi's go to to Taiwan
Under the aforementioned "motive" and "timing", Pelosi's go to to Taiwan occurred. This approach that the United States has already planned one of the two-song techniques, the "baiting strategy".
Consequences: sensible sports and severe stress
Under the dual consequences of this "war processes" and "most stress", the CCP's nationalist hawks have been stimulated and brought on, and the US changed into nicely organized to salary a local war with the CCP.
How does the U.S. Income under the "baiting approach"?
If this end result occurs, that is, the CCP is brought on to take the initiative to interact in a navy battle with america because of the "Pelosi Incident", irrespective of the scale of the war, then the USA can as a minimum obtain " blessings" and "two deployments":
Two advantages:
1. Demonstrate the potential of america to use army capability and political clear up to defend its Asian allies.
2. The "anti-China sentiment" within the United States has soared, and the Democratic Party can attain the outcomes of the midterm elections.
The United States is not actively searching for struggle in a "hot warfare", but "passive disagreement", this is, "let you force me to go to conflict". (Associated Press)
Two deployments:
1. The United States adopts the method of "one Taiwan, each expressing itself", that is, the CCP says that "Taiwan is part of China", and america says that "Taiwan is a self-governing island", after which lifts the connection between the USA and Taiwan to The "quasi-reputable dating at the highest level"; the Taiwan Policy Act, presently underneath attention in the US Congress, is proof of this deployment.
2. The United States started to construct the "Indo-Pacific NATO" strategic framework, uniting Indo-Pacific allies and NATO participants. For example, Germany will behavior a "Rapid Pacific 2022" joint navy exercising with four Indo-Pacific international locations in August, including The United States has decided to deploy a "Multi-Domain Task Force" (MDTF) in Asia subsequent 12 months to comprehensively conduct a "seamless containment" of the CCP.
What is America's "twin-tune strategy": Let you pressure me to go to conflict
The United States may additionally have realized that "the USA and China must eventually combat", mainly that the CCP will simply invade Taiwan via force. Although the USA has again and again suggested China not to undertaking the regulations-primarily based worldwide order, and now not to unilaterally change the status quo across the Taiwan Strait, irrespective of the way you say it or say it, the CCP is "tough rock and no nod"; therefore, considering that carrots do not paintings, then sticks . The United States has seen the falsehood and hollowness of the CCP's so-referred to as "reactive assertiveness"—using (different international locations') visible provocations in disputed areas to change the popularity quo to its very own gain with robust countermeasures. Therefore, the United States It is thought that it is higher to fight early than to combat past due, and to absolutely suppress China even as the CCP continues to be in its infancy.
However, the USA isn't always actively looking for warfare in a "warm conflict", however "passive fighting", that is, "can help you pressure me to go to warfare"; the USA is nicely conscious that China is in a nation of "hysterical nationalist pleasure" and may be very Being belligerent is also very clean to entice; however human beings typically assume that the PLA is bellicose, however in fact the United States navy is greater bellicose. Therefore, the method of the United States is to dig a "Thucydides trap" in front of the CCP, and allow the CCP leap into the lure in a frenzy. This time Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is a "Thucydides Trap" that induces China to take a military adventure to america, and america can get a valid motive to go to struggle with the CCP.
USS Carl Vinson and USS Lincoln. (taken from america 7th Fleet Facebook)
The United States makes use of high-give up means to "slow dying of China"
The second tune of the "two-song approach" is the sluggish demise approach. From the start of the U.S. Alternate conflict in opposition to the CCP to the "American Competition Law" and the latest "Chip Law", it isn't always a "short restoration" approach, but a strategy of boiling frogs in warm water, strangling the neck and suffocating. It is thru a form of "high-stop opposition" to sluggish the death of China.
As long as the United States does no longer want Taiwan, an "unsinkable aircraft provider" to fall into the arms of the CCP, so that it can install lengthy-variety missiles to immediately attack america after the CCP occupies Taiwan, the USA will preserve to design this "Thucydides lure" to induce The hawks within the CCP have driven the whole of China into this massive entice.
※The writer of this article is a senior researcher at the International Relations Research Center of National Chengchi University, a political and cultural critic
